Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Profarma Distribuidora de Produtos Farmacêuticos S.A. (PFRM3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.04 - $187.62$175.82
Multi-Stage$28.46 - $31.11$29.76
Blended Fair Value$102.79
Current Price$7.91
Upside1,199.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%40.15%0.450.250.000.240.000.000.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth--74.77%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-60.85%
Dividend Yield--6.11%4.87%0.00%6.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)115.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.1314.468.68
Cash Retained (M)24.4224.4224.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.13-14.46-8.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.299.9715.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)122.61122.61122.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.080.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.080.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.750.830.87
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.04$175.82$187.62
Upside / Downside911.85%2,122.81%2,271.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)115.67123.19131.20139.72148.81158.48163.23
Payout Ratio78.88%81.11%83.33%85.55%87.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.2599.92109.33119.54130.62142.63150.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)92.9493.8294.70
Year 2 PV (M)94.6096.4098.22
Year 3 PV (M)96.2198.97101.79
Year 4 PV (M)97.79101.55105.42
Year 5 PV (M)99.33104.13109.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,008.823,154.153,305.04
Equity Value (M)3,489.693,649.023,814.27
Shares Outstanding (M)122.61122.61122.61
Fair Value$28.46$29.76$31.11
Upside / Downside259.82%276.24%293.28%

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