Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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P.C.S. Machine Group Holding Public Company Limited (PCSGH.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.92 - $4.24$3.56
Multi-Stage$7.65 - $8.43$8.03
Blended Fair Value$5.80
Current Price$3.20
Upside81.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.45%-2.20%0.300.400.300.400.200.200.270.280.240.40
YoY Growth---25.00%33.33%-25.00%100.00%0.00%-25.93%-3.57%16.67%-40.00%6.71%
Dividend Yield--8.58%8.01%5.83%7.77%3.85%4.43%3.97%3.92%3.97%7.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)623.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)381.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)242.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)124.7877.9946.79
Cash Retained (M)242.64242.64242.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-124.78-77.99-46.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.86164.65195.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,523.551,523.551,523.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-4.20%-3.20%-2.20%
Fair Value$2.92$3.56$4.24
Upside / Downside-8.63%11.35%32.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)623.89603.95584.64565.96547.87530.35546.26
Payout Ratio61.11%66.89%72.67%78.44%84.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)381.25403.96424.83443.96461.42477.32505.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-4.20%-3.20%-2.20%
Year 1 PV (M)375.26379.17383.09
Year 2 PV (M)366.60374.29382.07
Year 3 PV (M)355.88367.14378.63
Year 4 PV (M)343.60358.17373.20
Year 5 PV (M)330.17347.77366.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,880.2210,406.7510,955.49
Equity Value (M)11,651.7312,233.2912,838.59
Shares Outstanding (M)1,523.551,523.551,523.55
Fair Value$7.65$8.03$8.43
Upside / Downside138.99%150.92%163.34%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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