Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$281.61 - $1,450.38$573.15
Multi-Stage$154.83 - $169.41$161.99
Blended Fair Value$367.57
Current Price$53.17
Upside591.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.180.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.14%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,215.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)431.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,784.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)443.07276.92166.15
Cash Retained (M)1,784.161,784.161,784.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-443.07-276.92-166.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,341.081,507.231,618.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)303.77303.77303.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.414.965.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.421.421.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.414.965.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.836.386.75
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$281.61$573.15$1,450.38
Upside / Downside429.64%977.96%2,627.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,215.362,359.362,512.722,676.042,849.993,035.243,126.29
Payout Ratio19.46%33.57%47.68%61.79%75.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)431.21792.071,198.031,653.412,162.942,731.712,891.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)728.63735.54742.45
Year 2 PV (M)1,013.811,033.121,052.61
Year 3 PV (M)1,287.111,324.061,361.71
Year 4 PV (M)1,548.901,608.461,669.73
Year 5 PV (M)1,799.531,886.441,976.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,655.2642,618.9344,657.75
Equity Value (M)47,033.2449,206.5551,460.93
Shares Outstanding (M)303.77303.77303.77
Fair Value$154.83$161.99$169.41
Upside / Downside191.20%204.66%218.62%

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