Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bank OZK (OZK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$137.18 - $331.88$203.72
Multi-Stage$96.84 - $105.76$101.22
Blended Fair Value$152.47
Current Price$50.98
Upside199.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.18%17.38%1.581.431.341.291.221.060.900.780.550.41
YoY Growth--10.11%7.06%3.91%5.21%14.97%18.50%15.20%42.72%32.06%30.30%
Dividend Yield--3.63%3.19%3.91%3.01%2.99%6.37%2.98%1.61%1.05%0.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)721.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)192.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)529.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)144.3490.2154.13
Cash Retained (M)529.09529.09529.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-144.34-90.21-54.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)384.75438.88474.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)113.89113.89113.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.383.854.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.691.691.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.383.854.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.075.545.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$137.18$203.72$331.88
Upside / Downside169.09%299.61%550.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)721.70768.61818.57871.77928.44988.791,018.45
Payout Ratio26.69%39.35%52.01%64.68%77.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)192.61302.45425.76563.82718.03889.91942.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)273.87276.47279.06
Year 2 PV (M)349.10355.75362.46
Year 3 PV (M)418.62430.63442.88
Year 4 PV (M)482.73501.30520.39
Year 5 PV (M)541.75567.92595.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,962.869,395.779,845.25
Equity Value (M)11,028.9311,527.8412,045.13
Shares Outstanding (M)113.89113.89113.89
Fair Value$96.84$101.22$105.76
Upside / Downside89.96%98.55%107.46%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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