Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ohio Valley Banc Corp. (OVBC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.74 - $61.66$45.31
Multi-Stage$56.56 - $62.16$59.31
Blended Fair Value$52.31
Current Price$36.98
Upside41.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.87%1.96%0.891.031.000.850.850.850.840.830.760.78
YoY Growth---14.25%3.20%17.47%-0.10%0.55%0.83%0.89%9.68%-2.18%6.51%
Dividend Yield--3.40%4.32%4.27%2.83%3.51%2.83%2.29%1.99%2.67%3.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.231.390.83
Cash Retained (M)7.977.977.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.23-1.39-0.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.756.587.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.724.724.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.221.401.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.221.401.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.892.062.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate0.78%1.78%2.78%
Fair Value$33.74$45.31$61.66
Upside / Downside-8.76%22.52%66.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.1311.3311.5311.7411.9412.1612.52
Payout Ratio28.36%40.69%53.02%65.34%77.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.164.616.117.679.2810.9411.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate0.78%1.78%2.78%
Year 1 PV (M)4.294.334.37
Year 2 PV (M)5.295.405.50
Year 3 PV (M)6.186.366.55
Year 4 PV (M)6.957.237.52
Year 5 PV (M)7.638.028.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)236.47248.44260.88
Equity Value (M)266.81279.78293.26
Shares Outstanding (M)4.724.724.72
Fair Value$56.56$59.31$62.16
Upside / Downside52.94%60.38%68.10%

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