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OneSpan Inc. (OSPN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.91 - $14.10$11.97
Multi-Stage$15.16 - $16.65$15.89
Blended Fair Value$13.93
Current Price$15.89
Upside-12.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.120.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)58.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.637.274.36
Cash Retained (M)44.2744.2744.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.63-7.27-4.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.6437.0039.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)39.1739.1739.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.941.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.941.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9.91$11.97$14.10
Upside / Downside-37.61%-24.65%-11.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)58.1557.5756.9956.4255.8655.3056.96
Payout Ratio23.87%37.09%50.32%63.55%76.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.8821.3528.6835.8542.8849.7752.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)19.2619.4619.65
Year 2 PV (M)23.3423.8124.30
Year 3 PV (M)26.3227.1327.96
Year 4 PV (M)28.3929.5730.78
Year 5 PV (M)29.7231.2732.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)466.91491.22516.53
Equity Value (M)593.93622.46652.11
Shares Outstanding (M)39.1739.1739.17
Fair Value$15.16$15.89$16.65
Upside / Downside-4.58%0.00%4.76%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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