Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$149.07 - $270.36$199.56
Multi-Stage$140.29 - $153.44$146.75
Blended Fair Value$173.15
Current Price$128.82
Upside34.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.71%9.00%1.851.651.501.391.261.161.100.970.860.82
YoY Growth--11.94%10.17%7.63%10.51%8.34%6.04%13.38%12.34%5.27%4.73%
Dividend Yield--1.96%1.34%1.80%1.38%1.06%1.23%1.79%1.06%1.33%2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)666.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)128.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)538.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)133.2683.2949.97
Cash Retained (M)538.10538.10538.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-133.26-83.29-49.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)404.84454.81488.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.0165.0165.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.237.007.51
LTM Dividend per Share1.971.971.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.237.007.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.208.979.48
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate3.85%4.85%5.85%
Fair Value$149.07$199.56$270.36
Upside / Downside15.72%54.91%109.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)666.30698.58732.43767.92805.13844.13869.46
Payout Ratio19.24%33.39%47.54%61.70%75.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)128.20233.27348.23473.78610.67759.72804.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate3.85%4.85%5.85%
Year 1 PV (M)210.89212.93214.96
Year 2 PV (M)284.62290.13295.69
Year 3 PV (M)350.08360.29370.70
Year 4 PV (M)407.95423.89440.29
Year 5 PV (M)458.83481.35504.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,408.037,771.658,149.41
Equity Value (M)9,120.409,540.249,975.80
Shares Outstanding (M)65.0165.0165.01
Fair Value$140.29$146.75$153.44
Upside / Downside8.90%13.91%19.12%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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