Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.67 - $257.02$93.69
Multi-Stage$43.39 - $47.48$45.39
Blended Fair Value$69.54
Current Price$10.79
Upside544.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.84%6.12%0.570.470.330.180.200.280.100.000.000.24
YoY Growth--21.00%44.19%81.47%-8.21%-28.21%187.88%8,150.00%0.00%-99.52%-23.58%
Dividend Yield--5.32%4.34%3.91%3.16%4.38%4.71%1.29%0.01%0.02%4.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,878.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,810.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,068.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)575.60359.75215.85
Cash Retained (M)1,068.001,068.001,068.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-575.60-359.75-215.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)492.40708.25852.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,726.401,726.401,726.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.410.49
LTM Dividend per Share1.051.051.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.410.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.461.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Fair Value$52.67$93.69$257.02
Upside / Downside388.10%768.29%2,282.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,878.003,025.433,180.423,343.353,514.623,694.663,805.50
Payout Ratio62.89%68.31%73.73%79.16%84.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,810.002,066.762,345.072,646.472,972.603,325.203,520.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Year 1 PV (M)1,917.481,935.901,954.31
Year 2 PV (M)2,018.552,057.512,096.84
Year 3 PV (M)2,113.462,174.942,237.60
Year 4 PV (M)2,202.452,288.292,376.61
Year 5 PV (M)2,285.762,397.652,513.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,363.5067,514.1970,787.07
Equity Value (M)74,901.2178,368.4881,966.33
Shares Outstanding (M)1,726.401,726.401,726.40
Fair Value$43.39$45.39$47.48
Upside / Downside302.09%320.71%340.02%

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