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Definitive Analysis

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Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. (OPY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.47 - $151.88$117.40
Multi-Stage$109.77 - $120.43$115.00
Blended Fair Value$116.20
Current Price$73.91
Upside57.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.86%1.36%0.600.570.621.711.630.520.510.510.520.53
YoY Growth--6.09%-8.40%-63.77%4.66%212.55%1.90%-0.05%-0.87%-2.01%0.42%
Dividend Yield--1.01%1.45%1.58%3.93%4.08%2.65%1.95%1.99%3.03%3.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)77.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.9510.606.36
Cash Retained (M)77.2377.2377.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.95-10.60-6.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)60.2766.6370.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.3711.3711.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.305.866.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.305.866.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.976.536.90
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate1.86%2.86%3.86%
Fair Value$90.47$117.40$151.88
Upside / Downside22.40%58.84%105.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.7787.1989.6892.2594.8897.59100.52
Payout Ratio8.90%25.12%41.34%57.56%73.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.5421.9037.0753.1070.0087.8392.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate1.86%2.86%3.86%
Year 1 PV (M)19.9720.1720.37
Year 2 PV (M)30.8431.4532.06
Year 3 PV (M)40.2941.4842.71
Year 4 PV (M)48.4450.3752.36
Year 5 PV (M)55.4458.2161.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,052.771,105.481,160.27
Equity Value (M)1,247.751,307.171,368.87
Shares Outstanding (M)11.3711.3711.37
Fair Value$109.77$115.00$120.43
Upside / Downside48.52%55.60%62.94%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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