Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Origin Enterprises plc (OIZ.IR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.72 - $30.97$20.84
Multi-Stage$21.51 - $23.62$22.55
Blended Fair Value$21.69
Current Price$3.72
Upside483.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-7.81%-3.34%0.160.160.160.120.030.240.230.230.230.27
YoY Growth---3.82%3.06%33.76%239.96%-85.23%1.55%0.00%0.00%-13.04%21.15%
Dividend Yield--4.23%5.23%4.96%3.03%1.01%8.75%4.50%3.77%3.65%4.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)93.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.6411.656.99
Cash Retained (M)56.8156.8156.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.64-11.65-6.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.1745.1649.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)113.33113.33113.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Fair Value$14.72$20.84$30.97
Upside / Downside295.66%460.18%732.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)93.1895.7598.40101.11103.90106.77109.98
Payout Ratio39.03%49.23%59.42%69.61%79.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.3747.1458.4770.3982.9296.09101.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Year 1 PV (M)43.9144.3444.77
Year 2 PV (M)50.7351.7352.75
Year 3 PV (M)56.8958.5960.31
Year 4 PV (M)62.4364.9267.49
Year 5 PV (M)67.4070.7774.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,156.592,264.662,377.02
Equity Value (M)2,437.962,555.022,676.62
Shares Outstanding (M)113.33113.33113.33
Fair Value$21.51$22.55$23.62
Upside / Downside478.30%506.06%534.91%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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