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Definitive Analysis

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Odontoprev S.A. (ODPV3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Healthcare PlansSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.37 - $210.32$70.99
Multi-Stage$23.00 - $25.07$24.01
Blended Fair Value$47.50
Current Price$13.24
Upside258.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.69%9.61%1.000.340.310.480.500.460.160.510.340.41
YoY Growth--196.77%7.72%-34.99%-3.35%7.72%189.05%-68.94%50.38%-16.85%3.02%
Dividend Yield--9.57%3.13%3.32%5.08%5.19%4.55%1.39%5.12%4.68%5.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)574.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)549.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.9071.8143.09
Cash Retained (M)25.3125.3125.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.90-71.81-43.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)-89.59-46.50-17.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)543.23543.23543.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.09-0.03
LTM Dividend per Share1.011.011.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.09-0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.98
WACC / Discount Rate7.89%7.89%7.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.37$70.99$210.32
Upside / Downside182.28%436.16%1,488.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)574.51611.85651.62693.97739.08787.12810.74
Payout Ratio95.59%94.48%93.36%92.24%91.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)549.19578.04608.33640.10673.44708.41749.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.89%7.89%7.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)530.75535.78540.81
Year 2 PV (M)512.85522.62532.48
Year 3 PV (M)495.49509.72524.21
Year 4 PV (M)478.65497.05515.99
Year 5 PV (M)462.30484.63507.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,011.6310,495.2010,997.27
Equity Value (M)12,491.6813,045.0013,618.58
Shares Outstanding (M)543.23543.23543.23
Fair Value$23.00$24.01$25.07
Upside / Downside73.68%81.37%89.35%

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