Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$122.29 - $606.97$257.08
Multi-Stage$65.77 - $71.98$68.82
Blended Fair Value$162.95
Current Price$25.21
Upside546.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.22%5.19%0.450.440.390.340.300.300.270.270.270.27
YoY Growth--2.58%11.18%15.88%12.38%-0.06%9.90%1.21%0.19%-0.09%0.41%
Dividend Yield--1.91%1.83%1.78%1.69%1.96%2.41%2.01%1.93%2.28%2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.274.542.73
Cash Retained (M)30.6730.6730.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.27-4.54-2.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.4026.1327.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.9111.9111.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.962.192.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.962.192.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.442.672.82
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$122.29$257.08$606.97
Upside / Downside385.10%919.74%2,307.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.3538.7141.2343.9146.7649.8051.29
Payout Ratio15.62%30.50%45.37%60.25%75.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.6811.8118.7126.4535.1344.8247.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10.8710.9711.07
Year 2 PV (M)15.8516.1516.46
Year 3 PV (M)20.6421.2321.83
Year 4 PV (M)25.2326.2027.20
Year 5 PV (M)29.6331.0732.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)681.05713.94748.10
Equity Value (M)783.27819.57857.22
Shares Outstanding (M)11.9111.9111.91
Fair Value$65.77$68.82$71.98
Upside / Downside160.88%172.97%185.51%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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