Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.85 - $201.84$91.75
Multi-Stage$34.98 - $38.23$36.58
Blended Fair Value$64.17
Current Price$34.52
Upside85.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS26.17%0.00%0.600.590.510.370.280.190.190.220.180.00
YoY Growth--0.96%16.87%37.85%30.17%51.01%-1.31%-15.08%21.37%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.72%1.96%1.58%0.87%0.67%0.92%0.55%0.66%0.54%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.997.494.50
Cash Retained (M)41.1041.1041.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.99-7.49-4.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.1133.6036.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)31.3531.3531.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.931.071.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.931.071.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.531.671.77
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$54.85$91.75$201.84
Upside / Downside58.91%165.80%484.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.9563.8568.0072.4277.1282.1484.60
Payout Ratio31.45%43.16%54.87%66.58%78.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.8527.5637.3148.2160.3873.9278.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25.1725.4125.65
Year 2 PV (M)31.1331.7332.33
Year 3 PV (M)36.7537.8138.88
Year 4 PV (M)42.0543.6645.33
Year 5 PV (M)47.0249.2951.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)914.72958.911,004.78
Equity Value (M)1,096.851,146.811,198.61
Shares Outstanding (M)31.3531.3531.35
Fair Value$34.98$36.58$38.23
Upside / Downside1.34%5.96%10.75%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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