Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NZX Limited (NZX.NZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Data & Stock ExchangesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.01 - $21.85$7.28
Multi-Stage$3.14 - $3.43$3.28
Blended Fair Value$5.28
Current Price$1.49
Upside254.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.78%3.77%0.050.050.050.040.040.040.050.050.050.05
YoY Growth--1.64%3.42%23.70%-11.35%14.91%-26.62%8.72%0.06%1.64%34.69%
Dividend Yield--3.53%4.66%4.06%2.23%2.33%2.91%5.35%4.44%4.74%4.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.085.053.03
Cash Retained (M)9.119.119.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.08-5.05-3.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.034.066.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)329.80329.80329.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate4.35%5.35%6.35%
Fair Value$4.01$7.28$21.85
Upside / Downside169.02%388.51%1,366.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.4142.5744.8547.2549.7852.4454.01
Payout Ratio77.46%79.97%82.47%84.98%87.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.3034.0436.9940.1543.5547.1949.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate4.35%5.35%6.35%
Year 1 PV (M)31.5431.8432.15
Year 2 PV (M)31.7532.3732.98
Year 3 PV (M)31.9432.8733.81
Year 4 PV (M)32.1033.3534.63
Year 5 PV (M)32.2333.8035.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)874.50917.22961.58
Equity Value (M)1,034.071,081.451,130.60
Shares Outstanding (M)329.80329.80329.80
Fair Value$3.14$3.28$3.43
Upside / Downside110.43%120.07%130.07%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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