Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$414.76 - $1,187.03$648.80
Multi-Stage$283.83 - $309.84$296.60
Blended Fair Value$472.70
Current Price$197.74
Upside139.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.47%28.07%7.086.174.593.813.262.682.221.810.950.77
YoY Growth--14.66%34.51%20.34%16.83%21.95%20.68%22.79%89.82%24.31%28.41%
Dividend Yield--3.95%3.63%2.66%2.02%2.32%4.64%2.03%2.72%1.36%1.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)517.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)221.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)296.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)103.4064.6338.78
Cash Retained (M)296.00296.00296.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-103.40-64.63-38.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)192.60231.38257.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.9530.9530.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.227.488.31
LTM Dividend per Share7.147.147.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.227.488.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.3614.6215.45
WACC / Discount Rate8.90%8.90%8.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$414.76$648.80$1,187.03
Upside / Downside109.75%228.11%500.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)517.00550.61586.39624.51665.10708.33729.58
Payout Ratio42.75%52.20%61.65%71.10%80.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)221.00287.40361.50444.02535.74637.50674.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.90%8.90%8.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)261.44263.91266.39
Year 2 PV (M)299.13304.83310.58
Year 3 PV (M)334.22343.81353.59
Year 4 PV (M)366.83380.93395.44
Year 5 PV (M)397.07416.25436.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,125.167,469.317,826.63
Equity Value (M)8,783.849,179.059,588.79
Shares Outstanding (M)30.9530.9530.95
Fair Value$283.83$296.60$309.84
Upside / Downside43.54%49.99%56.69%

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