Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. (NTGY.MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.80 - $21.44$18.03
Multi-Stage$40.87 - $45.07$42.93
Blended Fair Value$30.48
Current Price$27.00
Upside12.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.76%-1.57%1.001.521.561.781.881.981.461.341.591.12
YoY Growth---33.93%-3.07%-12.13%-5.27%-5.21%35.79%9.03%-15.86%42.62%-4.89%
Dividend Yield--3.89%7.47%5.64%6.55%8.99%12.30%5.84%6.90%7.75%6.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,005.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,152.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)852.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)401.00250.63150.38
Cash Retained (M)852.29852.29852.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-401.00-250.63-150.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)451.29601.67701.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)959.03959.03959.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.630.73
LTM Dividend per Share1.201.201.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.630.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.831.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-4.47%-3.47%-2.47%
Fair Value$14.80$18.03$21.44
Upside / Downside-45.18%-33.23%-20.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,005.001,935.431,868.261,803.431,740.851,680.451,730.86
Payout Ratio57.49%63.99%70.50%77.00%83.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,152.711,238.541,317.031,388.591,453.581,512.401,601.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-4.47%-3.47%-2.47%
Year 1 PV (M)1,152.801,164.871,176.93
Year 2 PV (M)1,140.991,165.001,189.26
Year 3 PV (M)1,119.691,155.221,191.50
Year 4 PV (M)1,090.961,137.361,185.23
Year 5 PV (M)1,056.521,112.981,171.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,636.8235,434.6137,308.45
Equity Value (M)39,197.7741,170.0443,223.21
Shares Outstanding (M)959.03959.03959.03
Fair Value$40.87$42.93$45.07
Upside / Downside51.38%59.00%66.92%

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