Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (NTB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$138.99 - $434.62$222.92
Multi-Stage$92.04 - $100.54$96.21
Blended Fair Value$159.57
Current Price$42.90
Upside271.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.20%11.24%1.852.002.032.032.062.171.941.620.450.58
YoY Growth---7.66%-1.32%0.07%-1.85%-5.02%11.87%20.04%260.44%-22.14%-9.45%
Dividend Yield--4.74%6.29%7.51%5.64%5.40%12.76%5.29%3.71%1.41%2.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)227.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.5528.4717.08
Cash Retained (M)151.69151.69151.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.55-28.47-17.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)106.14123.22134.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.1043.1043.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.462.863.12
LTM Dividend per Share1.771.771.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.462.863.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.234.624.89
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$138.99$222.92$434.62
Upside / Downside223.98%419.64%913.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)227.77242.57258.34275.13293.01312.06321.42
Payout Ratio33.40%44.72%56.04%67.36%78.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.08108.48144.77185.33230.54280.85297.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)98.8599.79100.73
Year 2 PV (M)120.22122.51124.82
Year 3 PV (M)140.23144.26148.36
Year 4 PV (M)158.97165.08171.37
Year 5 PV (M)176.47184.99193.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,272.183,430.233,594.32
Equity Value (M)3,966.924,146.854,333.44
Shares Outstanding (M)43.1043.1043.10
Fair Value$92.04$96.21$100.54
Upside / Downside114.54%124.27%134.37%

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