Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB.IL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$273.28 - $988.13$866.24
Multi-Stage$126.69 - $138.52$132.50
Blended Fair Value$499.37
Current Price$30.00
Upside1,564.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.20%0.00%2.291.151.051.000.001.472.740.680.470.01
YoY Growth--99.29%9.72%4.06%0.00%-100.00%-46.21%305.46%44.70%4,675.33%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.14%5.31%7.66%7.34%0.00%19.68%22.62%5.87%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)496.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)247.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)249.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.3862.1137.27
Cash Retained (M)249.83249.83249.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.38-62.11-37.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)150.45187.71212.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.01100.01100.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.501.882.13
LTM Dividend per Share2.472.472.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.501.882.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.974.354.60
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$273.28$866.24$988.13
Upside / Downside810.93%2,787.46%3,193.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)496.90529.20563.60600.23639.24680.79701.22
Payout Ratio49.72%57.78%65.83%73.89%81.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)247.07305.76371.04443.50523.83612.72648.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)282.98285.67288.35
Year 2 PV (M)317.82323.87329.98
Year 3 PV (M)351.59361.68371.97
Year 4 PV (M)384.33399.11414.31
Year 5 PV (M)416.06436.15457.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,916.9111,444.2011,991.67
Equity Value (M)12,669.6813,250.6813,853.29
Shares Outstanding (M)100.01100.01100.01
Fair Value$126.69$132.50$138.52
Upside / Downside322.29%341.66%361.74%

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