Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NIKE, Inc. (NKE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.62 - $37.22$29.11
Multi-Stage$27.62 - $30.13$28.85
Blended Fair Value$28.98
Current Price$77.37
Upside-62.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.64%9.85%1.551.461.361.241.100.980.900.840.760.69
YoY Growth--6.04%7.80%9.53%12.15%12.81%9.01%7.16%9.71%10.86%13.68%
Dividend Yield--2.00%1.75%1.33%1.16%0.67%0.87%1.06%1.02%1.45%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,895.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,333.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)562.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)579.00361.88217.13
Cash Retained (M)562.00562.00562.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-579.00-361.88-217.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)-17.00200.13344.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,484.431,484.431,484.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.130.23
LTM Dividend per Share1.571.571.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.130.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.561.711.80
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate2.36%3.36%4.36%
Fair Value$22.62$29.11$37.22
Upside / Downside-70.76%-62.37%-51.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,895.002,992.403,093.073,197.133,304.693,415.863,518.34
Payout Ratio80.59%82.47%84.35%86.23%88.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,333.002,467.822,609.072,757.042,912.003,074.283,254.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate2.36%3.36%4.36%
Year 1 PV (M)2,233.482,255.302,277.12
Year 2 PV (M)2,137.092,179.052,221.42
Year 3 PV (M)2,043.842,104.332,166.00
Year 4 PV (M)1,953.732,031.202,110.95
Year 5 PV (M)1,866.741,959.722,056.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,765.5732,297.9733,890.83
Equity Value (M)41,000.4642,827.5744,722.69
Shares Outstanding (M)1,484.431,484.431,484.43
Fair Value$27.62$28.85$30.13
Upside / Downside-64.30%-62.71%-61.06%

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