Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$173.32 - $662.83$498.52
Multi-Stage$83.34 - $91.10$87.15
Blended Fair Value$292.83
Current Price$48.15
Upside508.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.86%8.93%1.791.641.501.271.161.171.030.950.870.82
YoY Growth--9.09%9.33%18.22%9.19%-0.72%13.21%8.58%8.92%6.72%7.73%
Dividend Yield--3.71%3.51%3.36%2.56%2.83%3.29%2.32%2.08%2.17%2.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)335.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)180.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.1341.9525.17
Cash Retained (M)155.56155.56155.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.13-41.95-25.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.44113.61130.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.70100.70100.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.131.29
LTM Dividend per Share1.791.791.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.131.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.672.923.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$173.32$498.52$662.83
Upside / Downside259.95%935.34%1,276.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)335.63357.44380.68405.42431.77459.84473.63
Payout Ratio53.65%60.92%68.19%75.46%82.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)180.07217.76259.58305.93357.21413.85438.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)201.37203.28205.19
Year 2 PV (M)221.98226.21230.48
Year 3 PV (M)241.93248.87255.95
Year 4 PV (M)261.22271.26281.59
Year 5 PV (M)279.86293.38307.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,185.717,532.787,893.14
Equity Value (M)8,392.078,775.789,173.76
Shares Outstanding (M)100.70100.70100.70
Fair Value$83.34$87.15$91.10
Upside / Downside73.08%80.99%89.20%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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