Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

PT Bank OCBC NISP Tbk (NISP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,397.68 - $10,415.51$6,485.58
Multi-Stage$4,845.71 - $5,307.92$5,072.50
Blended Fair Value$5,779.04
Current Price$1,355.00
Upside326.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%72.0058.0022.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--24.14%163.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.35%4.31%2.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,873,131.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,432,201.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,440,930.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)974,626.20609,141.38365,484.83
Cash Retained (M)2,440,930.002,440,930.002,440,930.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-974,626.20-609,141.38-365,484.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,466,303.801,831,788.632,075,445.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22,945.3022,945.3022,945.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share63.9079.8390.45
LTM Dividend per Share106.00106.00106.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share63.9079.8390.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend169.90185.83196.45
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate3.05%4.05%5.05%
Fair Value$4,397.68$6,485.58$10,415.51
Upside / Downside224.55%378.64%668.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,873,131.005,070,639.365,276,152.755,489,995.615,712,505.545,944,033.826,122,354.83
Payout Ratio49.91%57.93%65.95%73.96%81.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,432,201.002,937,337.713,479,425.544,060,629.964,683,231.295,349,630.445,663,178.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate3.05%4.05%5.05%
Year 1 PV (M)2,717,917.612,744,291.592,770,665.56
Year 2 PV (M)2,979,012.733,037,108.393,095,765.08
Year 3 PV (M)3,216,922.753,311,483.023,407,878.40
Year 4 PV (M)3,433,011.283,568,215.683,707,374.92
Year 5 PV (M)3,628,572.553,808,076.323,994,614.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)95,210,907.9099,920,946.58104,815,570.65
Equity Value (M)111,186,344.81116,390,121.57121,791,869.42
Shares Outstanding (M)22,945.3022,945.3022,945.30
Fair Value$4,845.71$5,072.50$5,307.92
Upside / Downside257.62%274.35%291.73%

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