Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$816.80 - $962.32$901.84
Multi-Stage$370.26 - $406.07$387.83
Blended Fair Value$644.84
Current Price$57.54
Upside1,020.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.62%9.95%2.535.807.151.421.331.341.831.551.191.20
YoY Growth---56.40%-18.89%402.45%7.38%-0.79%-26.86%18.02%29.93%-0.34%21.98%
Dividend Yield--4.19%9.25%9.19%1.65%2.42%5.91%5.07%3.31%2.39%3.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,593.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,445.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,148.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,918.601,199.13719.48
Cash Retained (M)5,148.005,148.005,148.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,918.60-1,199.13-719.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,229.403,948.884,428.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,982.501,982.501,982.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.631.992.23
LTM Dividend per Share2.242.242.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.631.992.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.874.234.48
WACC / Discount Rate4.38%4.38%4.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$816.80$901.84$962.32
Upside / Downside1,319.53%1,467.32%1,572.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,593.0010,216.5510,880.6211,587.8612,341.0713,143.2413,537.54
Payout Ratio46.34%55.07%63.80%72.53%81.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,445.005,626.126,942.008,405.1810,029.2411,828.9212,522.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.38%4.38%4.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,339.375,389.985,440.59
Year 2 PV (M)6,252.406,371.496,491.71
Year 3 PV (M)7,184.397,390.637,600.78
Year 4 PV (M)8,135.658,448.528,770.34
Year 5 PV (M)9,106.479,546.3210,003.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)698,016.78731,731.26766,736.06
Equity Value (M)734,035.07768,878.20805,042.47
Shares Outstanding (M)1,982.501,982.501,982.50
Fair Value$370.26$387.83$406.07
Upside / Downside543.48%574.02%605.73%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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