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Definitive Analysis

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NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.22 - $10.55$8.83
Multi-Stage$12.39 - $13.62$12.99
Blended Fair Value$10.91
Current Price$6.00
Upside81.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.001.091.871.811.721.392.46
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-41.85%3.28%5.14%24.14%-43.70%32.73%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%45.64%47.90%12.19%13.76%9.90%12.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)94.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.0915.689.41
Cash Retained (M)94.6994.6994.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.09-15.68-9.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)69.6079.0185.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.84130.84130.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.600.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.600.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.22$8.83$10.55
Upside / Downside20.37%47.14%75.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.44124.18122.94121.71120.49119.29122.87
Payout Ratio24.52%37.61%50.71%63.81%76.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.7546.7162.3477.6692.66107.36113.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)42.6543.0943.52
Year 2 PV (M)51.9853.0554.12
Year 3 PV (M)59.1360.9662.82
Year 4 PV (M)64.4267.0969.84
Year 5 PV (M)68.1671.7175.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,334.301,403.781,476.12
Equity Value (M)1,620.631,699.661,781.83
Shares Outstanding (M)130.84130.84130.84
Fair Value$12.39$12.99$13.62
Upside / Downside106.44%116.51%126.98%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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