Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.96 - $166.87$119.83
Multi-Stage$110.17 - $120.77$115.37
Blended Fair Value$117.60
Current Price$92.37
Upside27.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.21%3.72%2.072.011.931.841.791.681.621.571.521.48
YoY Growth--2.52%4.37%4.73%3.10%6.37%4.00%2.90%3.02%3.14%3.14%
Dividend Yield--2.24%3.32%3.85%2.91%2.80%4.09%3.47%3.07%2.78%2.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)518.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)188.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)330.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)103.7064.8138.89
Cash Retained (M)330.07330.07330.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-103.70-64.81-38.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)226.37265.25291.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)91.2491.2491.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.482.913.19
LTM Dividend per Share2.072.072.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.482.913.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.554.975.26
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate2.21%3.21%4.21%
Fair Value$87.96$119.83$166.87
Upside / Downside-4.77%29.73%80.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)518.50535.15552.33570.07588.37607.26625.48
Payout Ratio36.34%47.07%57.81%68.54%79.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)188.44251.92319.28390.71466.39546.54578.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate2.21%3.21%4.21%
Year 1 PV (M)232.09234.36236.63
Year 2 PV (M)270.99276.32281.70
Year 3 PV (M)305.50314.56323.79
Year 4 PV (M)335.97349.32363.05
Year 5 PV (M)362.71380.80399.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,544.278,970.509,413.57
Equity Value (M)10,051.5310,525.8511,018.35
Shares Outstanding (M)91.2491.2491.24
Fair Value$110.17$115.37$120.77
Upside / Downside19.27%24.90%30.74%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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