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Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (NFBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.86 - $34.15$23.54
Multi-Stage$17.45 - $19.08$18.25
Blended Fair Value$20.89
Current Price$11.80
Upside77.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.56%5.41%0.540.560.600.600.530.500.460.390.350.30
YoY Growth---4.25%-5.52%-0.71%13.14%6.33%8.17%19.35%11.17%15.51%-5.43%
Dividend Yield--4.94%5.81%5.06%4.18%3.33%4.46%3.27%2.48%1.93%1.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.894.932.96
Cash Retained (M)18.1418.1418.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.89-4.93-2.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.2513.2115.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.4840.4840.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.330.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.330.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate3.41%4.41%5.41%
Fair Value$16.86$23.54$34.15
Upside / Downside42.85%99.46%189.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.4541.1943.0144.9046.8948.9650.42
Payout Ratio54.01%61.21%68.41%75.61%82.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.3125.2129.4233.9538.8244.0646.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate3.41%4.41%5.41%
Year 1 PV (M)23.0823.3023.53
Year 2 PV (M)24.6525.1325.62
Year 3 PV (M)26.0426.8127.58
Year 4 PV (M)27.2628.3329.43
Year 5 PV (M)28.3229.7231.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)577.05605.50635.05
Equity Value (M)706.41738.79772.38
Shares Outstanding (M)40.4840.4840.48
Fair Value$17.45$18.25$19.08
Upside / Downside47.89%54.67%61.70%

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