Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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NACCO Industries, Inc. (NC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.69 - $48.92$40.39
Multi-Stage$51.76 - $56.86$54.26
Blended Fair Value$47.33
Current Price$44.31
Upside6.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.24%-1.56%0.890.870.810.750.720.690.620.900.980.98
YoY Growth--2.67%7.32%7.03%4.50%4.73%12.10%-31.49%-7.99%-0.47%-5.92%
Dividend Yield--2.64%2.95%2.24%1.92%2.89%2.46%1.62%2.73%6.12%7.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.803.622.17
Cash Retained (M)21.8721.8721.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.80-3.62-2.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.0718.2419.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.447.447.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.162.452.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.960.960.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.162.452.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.123.413.60
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate-0.92%0.08%1.08%
Fair Value$32.69$40.39$48.92
Upside / Downside-26.23%-8.84%10.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28.9829.0029.0329.0529.0829.1029.97
Payout Ratio24.54%37.63%50.73%63.82%76.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.1110.9114.7218.5422.3626.1927.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate-0.92%0.08%1.08%
Year 1 PV (M)9.9610.0610.16
Year 2 PV (M)12.2512.5012.75
Year 3 PV (M)14.0714.5014.94
Year 4 PV (M)15.4916.1216.77
Year 5 PV (M)16.5417.4018.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)316.91333.22350.21
Equity Value (M)385.22403.80423.12
Shares Outstanding (M)7.447.447.44
Fair Value$51.76$54.26$56.86
Upside / Downside16.82%22.46%28.31%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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