Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.56 - $296.77$143.47
Multi-Stage$57.15 - $62.43$59.74
Blended Fair Value$101.61
Current Price$38.64
Upside162.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.79%17.57%1.121.040.800.700.650.610.430.250.170.18
YoY Growth--8.33%30.20%13.24%8.35%5.47%41.54%76.83%46.89%-4.63%-21.11%
Dividend Yield--2.93%2.93%2.38%1.74%1.63%2.57%1.27%0.74%0.51%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)121.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.3415.229.13
Cash Retained (M)76.3676.3676.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.34-15.22-9.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.0161.1467.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)38.2738.2738.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.361.601.76
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.361.601.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.542.782.94
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$87.56$143.47$296.77
Upside / Downside126.59%271.31%668.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)121.72129.63138.06147.03156.59166.77171.77
Payout Ratio37.27%47.82%58.36%68.91%79.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.3761.9980.58101.32124.42150.09158.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)56.5657.1057.63
Year 2 PV (M)67.0868.3669.65
Year 3 PV (M)76.9779.1881.43
Year 4 PV (M)86.2489.5692.97
Year 5 PV (M)94.9399.52104.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,805.671,892.881,983.43
Equity Value (M)2,187.462,286.602,389.40
Shares Outstanding (M)38.2738.2738.27
Fair Value$57.15$59.74$62.43
Upside / Downside47.91%54.61%61.56%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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