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Definitive Analysis

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National Australia Bank Limited (NAB.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.62 - $93.90$69.19
Multi-Stage$76.46 - $83.79$80.05
Blended Fair Value$74.62
Current Price$34.02
Upside119.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.55%1.69%1.401.291.190.800.690.971.261.411.371.08
YoY Growth--8.32%8.31%49.37%15.45%-28.87%-22.62%-11.14%3.42%26.74%-8.78%
Dividend Yield--3.74%4.44%4.14%2.87%3.89%3.27%4.55%4.49%4.90%3.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,160.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,075.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,085.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,432.101,520.06912.04
Cash Retained (M)4,085.504,085.504,085.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,432.10-1,520.06-912.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,653.402,565.443,173.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,362.043,362.043,362.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.760.94
LTM Dividend per Share2.402.402.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.760.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.893.163.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate1.41%2.41%3.41%
Fair Value$51.62$69.19$93.90
Upside / Downside51.73%103.37%176.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,160.5012,453.1612,752.8613,059.7813,374.0813,695.9514,106.83
Payout Ratio66.40%71.12%75.84%80.56%85.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,075.008,857.049,672.0410,521.1411,405.5112,326.3513,048.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate1.41%2.41%3.41%
Year 1 PV (M)8,189.808,270.578,351.33
Year 2 PV (M)8,269.678,433.578,599.08
Year 3 PV (M)8,317.988,566.498,819.90
Year 4 PV (M)8,337.868,671.649,015.35
Year 5 PV (M)8,332.198,751.219,186.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)215,604.36226,446.78237,721.09
Equity Value (M)257,051.86269,140.26281,693.66
Shares Outstanding (M)3,362.043,362.043,362.04
Fair Value$76.46$80.05$83.79
Upside / Downside124.74%135.31%146.29%

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