Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

METISA Metalúrgica Timboense S.A. (MTSA3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$156.74 - $912.10$290.82
Multi-Stage$94.40 - $103.10$98.67
Blended Fair Value$194.75
Current Price$44.80
Upside334.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.38%9.61%2.573.711.771.770.720.770.630.530.530.53
YoY Growth---30.66%109.93%-0.02%145.56%-6.17%22.41%18.01%0.00%0.00%-48.30%
Dividend Yield--5.85%7.62%4.31%4.48%2.28%4.43%3.72%3.02%3.93%5.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.215.133.08
Cash Retained (M)19.0219.0219.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.21-5.13-3.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.8113.8915.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.958.958.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.211.551.78
LTM Dividend per Share2.462.462.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.211.551.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.674.014.24
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$156.74$290.82$912.10
Upside / Downside249.87%549.16%1,935.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.0343.7046.5449.5652.7856.2157.90
Payout Ratio53.64%60.91%68.18%75.46%82.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.0126.6231.7337.4043.6750.5953.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)24.4224.6524.88
Year 2 PV (M)26.7127.2227.73
Year 3 PV (M)28.8829.7130.56
Year 4 PV (M)30.9432.1333.36
Year 5 PV (M)32.8934.4836.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)700.66734.51769.64
Equity Value (M)844.51882.70922.30
Shares Outstanding (M)8.958.958.95
Fair Value$94.40$98.67$103.10
Upside / Downside110.71%120.24%130.12%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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