Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Metcash Limited (MTS.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.46 - $99.01$92.79
Multi-Stage$15.38 - $16.83$16.09
Blended Fair Value$54.44
Current Price$3.81
Upside1,328.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.16%11.51%0.150.140.200.180.140.110.120.100.000.01
YoY Growth--13.37%-32.18%9.42%33.85%25.47%-8.23%22.32%7,421.43%-75.86%-89.68%
Dividend Yield--4.78%3.45%5.14%3.82%3.85%4.38%4.14%2.70%0.06%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)541.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)346.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)194.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.3467.7140.63
Cash Retained (M)194.90194.90194.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.34-67.71-40.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)86.56127.19154.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,084.561,084.561,084.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.16%6.16%7.16%
Fair Value$35.46$92.79$99.01
Upside / Downside830.66%2,335.38%2,498.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)541.70575.05610.46648.04687.94730.29752.20
Payout Ratio64.02%69.22%74.41%79.61%84.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)346.80398.03454.26515.89583.40657.27695.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.16%6.16%7.16%
Year 1 PV (M)370.77374.29377.82
Year 2 PV (M)394.16401.69409.29
Year 3 PV (M)416.98428.99441.23
Year 4 PV (M)439.25456.20473.63
Year 5 PV (M)460.97483.30506.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,602.3415,309.9816,044.80
Equity Value (M)16,684.4617,454.4618,253.27
Shares Outstanding (M)1,084.561,084.561,084.56
Fair Value$15.38$16.09$16.83
Upside / Downside303.77%322.41%341.74%

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