Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - SpecialtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.86 - $40.49$33.30
Multi-Stage$40.38 - $44.35$42.32
Blended Fair Value$37.81
Current Price$28.37
Upside33.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.50%0.00%0.540.510.460.390.340.170.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.13%10.83%17.75%14.82%95.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.17%2.31%3.41%2.86%2.44%2.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)753.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)132.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)621.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)150.7594.2256.53
Cash Retained (M)621.72621.72621.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-150.75-94.22-56.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)470.98527.51565.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)242.78242.78242.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.942.172.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.942.172.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.482.722.87
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate-0.50%0.50%1.50%
Fair Value$26.86$33.30$40.49
Upside / Downside-5.31%17.37%42.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)753.74757.50761.28765.08768.90772.74795.92
Payout Ratio17.51%32.01%46.51%61.01%75.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)132.01242.49354.06466.74580.54695.46736.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate-0.50%0.50%1.50%
Year 1 PV (M)220.86223.08225.30
Year 2 PV (M)293.73299.67305.66
Year 3 PV (M)352.68363.42374.38
Year 4 PV (M)399.55415.86432.66
Year 5 PV (M)435.97458.32481.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,099.778,515.068,947.21
Equity Value (M)9,802.5710,275.4110,766.80
Shares Outstanding (M)242.78242.78242.78
Fair Value$40.38$42.32$44.35
Upside / Downside42.32%49.18%56.32%

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