Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Match Group, Inc. (MTCH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.95 - $21.48$18.14
Multi-Stage$20.86 - $22.87$21.84
Blended Fair Value$19.99
Current Price$35.32
Upside-43.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.390.000.000.42
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%16.29%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.70%0.00%0.00%3.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)562.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)421.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)112.4270.2642.16
Cash Retained (M)421.20421.20421.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-112.42-70.26-42.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)308.78350.94379.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)267.14267.14267.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.161.311.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.161.311.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.841.95
WACC / Discount Rate10.29%10.29%10.29%
Growth Rate-0.87%0.13%1.13%
Fair Value$14.95$18.14$21.48
Upside / Downside-57.68%-48.64%-39.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)562.09562.82563.56564.29565.02565.76582.73
Payout Ratio25.07%38.05%51.04%64.03%77.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.89214.17287.64361.29435.14509.18539.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.29%10.29%10.29%
Growth Rate-0.87%0.13%1.13%
Year 1 PV (M)192.24194.18196.12
Year 2 PV (M)231.76236.46241.20
Year 3 PV (M)261.31269.29277.44
Year 4 PV (M)282.50294.07306.00
Year 5 PV (M)296.73312.00327.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,307.594,529.294,760.02
Equity Value (M)5,572.125,835.296,108.68
Shares Outstanding (M)267.14267.14267.14
Fair Value$20.86$21.84$22.87
Upside / Downside-40.95%-38.16%-35.26%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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