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Definitive Analysis

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MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.16 - $27.96$24.07
Multi-Stage$44.15 - $48.42$46.24
Blended Fair Value$35.16
Current Price$90.23
Upside-61.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-15.65%-3.97%3.393.353.162.992.997.952.612.241.831.89
YoY Growth--1.27%5.98%5.58%0.05%-62.33%204.83%16.17%22.71%-3.37%-62.78%
Dividend Yield--3.76%3.90%3.20%3.50%3.68%9.14%3.55%2.53%2.02%2.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)199.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)189.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.8724.9214.95
Cash Retained (M)9.689.689.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.87-24.92-14.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)-30.19-15.24-5.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.8955.8955.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.54-0.27-0.09
LTM Dividend per Share3.393.393.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.54-0.27-0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.853.123.30
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate-5.10%-4.10%-3.10%
Fair Value$20.16$24.07$27.96
Upside / Downside-77.66%-73.32%-69.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)199.33191.15183.31175.79168.57161.66166.51
Payout Ratio95.14%94.12%93.09%92.06%91.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)189.65179.90170.64161.83153.45145.49154.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate-5.10%-4.10%-3.10%
Year 1 PV (M)164.34166.07167.80
Year 2 PV (M)142.39145.40148.45
Year 3 PV (M)123.35127.29131.32
Year 4 PV (M)106.85111.42116.15
Year 5 PV (M)92.5497.52102.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,838.071,936.982,040.10
Equity Value (M)2,467.532,584.692,706.52
Shares Outstanding (M)55.8955.8955.89
Fair Value$44.15$46.24$48.42
Upside / Downside-51.07%-48.75%-46.33%

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