Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$288.84 - $663.39$421.57
Multi-Stage$206.60 - $225.64$215.95
Blended Fair Value$318.76
Current Price$517.95
Upside-38.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.73%9.32%3.232.922.652.432.212.031.851.701.591.47
YoY Growth--10.62%9.95%9.18%9.77%9.14%9.60%8.76%7.21%7.62%11.37%
Dividend Yield--0.62%0.68%0.84%1.04%0.79%0.96%1.33%1.47%2.13%2.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104,912.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24,677.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)80,235.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20,982.4013,114.007,868.40
Cash Retained (M)80,235.0080,235.0080,235.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-20,982.40-13,114.00-7,868.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)59,252.6067,121.0072,366.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,465.007,465.007,465.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.948.999.69
LTM Dividend per Share3.313.313.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.948.999.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.2412.3013.00
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$288.84$421.57$663.39
Upside / Downside-44.23%-18.61%28.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104,912.00111,731.28118,993.81126,728.41134,965.76143,738.53148,050.69
Payout Ratio23.52%36.82%50.11%63.41%76.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24,677.0041,136.4359,631.3380,356.77103,524.57129,364.68136,946.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)37,178.5937,530.9937,883.39
Year 2 PV (M)48,708.7549,636.5150,573.03
Year 3 PV (M)59,322.7361,025.6762,760.90
Year 4 PV (M)69,073.0071,729.3574,461.59
Year 5 PV (M)78,009.3781,777.2685,689.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,249,989.531,310,364.491,373,050.14
Equity Value (M)1,542,281.961,612,064.271,684,418.40
Shares Outstanding (M)7,465.007,465.007,465.00
Fair Value$206.60$215.95$225.64
Upside / Downside-60.11%-58.31%-56.44%

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