Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.61 - $25.74$21.53
Multi-Stage$28.55 - $31.38$29.94
Blended Fair Value$25.74
Current Price$26.63
Upside-3.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS8.23%-6.81%0.440.380.250.110.280.290.300.280.800.95
YoY Growth--14.09%56.03%120.31%-60.49%-4.14%-0.59%4.94%-64.78%-15.29%6.89%
Dividend Yield--1.53%1.60%0.98%1.05%8.59%1.70%1.84%1.79%7.21%3.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,330.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)253.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,077.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)266.00166.2599.75
Cash Retained (M)1,077.001,077.001,077.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-266.00-166.25-99.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)811.00910.75977.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)572.96572.96572.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.591.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.591.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.862.032.15
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate-1.66%-0.66%0.34%
Fair Value$17.61$21.53$25.74
Upside / Downside-33.87%-19.14%-3.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,330.001,321.261,312.581,303.951,295.381,286.871,325.48
Payout Ratio19.02%33.22%47.41%61.61%75.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)253.00438.90622.34803.35981.961,158.181,226.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate-1.66%-0.66%0.34%
Year 1 PV (M)399.66403.72407.78
Year 2 PV (M)516.03526.58537.23
Year 3 PV (M)606.56625.26644.33
Year 4 PV (M)675.13703.01731.75
Year 5 PV (M)725.10762.72801.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,435.4014,132.5314,858.29
Equity Value (M)16,357.8817,153.8217,981.28
Shares Outstanding (M)572.96572.96572.96
Fair Value$28.55$29.94$31.38
Upside / Downside7.21%12.43%17.85%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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