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Definitive Analysis

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Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$447.02 - $720.56$570.29
Multi-Stage$361.65 - $394.24$377.66
Blended Fair Value$473.98
Current Price$920.64
Upside-48.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.02%35.35%5.003.862.872.271.841.400.990.700.690.62
YoY Growth--29.48%34.70%26.15%23.18%31.94%41.75%39.94%2.50%10.46%157.03%
Dividend Yield--0.86%0.58%0.57%0.47%0.52%0.83%0.70%0.61%0.75%0.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,895.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)271.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,623.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)379.03236.89142.14
Cash Retained (M)1,623.321,623.321,623.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-379.03-236.89-142.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,244.291,386.421,481.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.1448.1448.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.8528.8030.77
LTM Dividend per Share5.655.655.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.8528.8030.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend31.4934.4536.41
WACC / Discount Rate12.93%12.93%12.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$447.02$570.29$720.56
Upside / Downside-51.44%-38.05%-21.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,895.152,018.342,149.532,289.252,438.052,596.532,674.42
Payout Ratio14.34%29.47%44.61%59.74%74.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)271.84594.90958.821,367.541,825.342,336.872,473.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.93%12.93%12.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)521.83526.78531.72
Year 2 PV (M)737.75751.80765.98
Year 3 PV (M)922.98949.47976.47
Year 4 PV (M)1,080.631,122.191,164.94
Year 5 PV (M)1,213.541,272.151,333.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,933.8613,558.5714,207.19
Equity Value (M)17,410.5918,180.9718,979.32
Shares Outstanding (M)48.1448.1448.14
Fair Value$361.65$377.66$394.24
Upside / Downside-60.72%-58.98%-57.18%

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