Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Mitra Pinasthika Mustika Tbk (MPMX.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$932.80 - $1,363.22$1,140.55
Multi-Stage$2,170.11 - $2,382.82$2,274.38
Blended Fair Value$1,707.47
Current Price$935.00
Upside82.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-24.61%0.00%114.91134.65179.00113.3788.61471.760.00125.7826.466.97
YoY Growth---14.66%-24.78%57.89%27.95%-81.22%0.00%-100.00%375.39%279.75%0.00%
Dividend Yield--11.61%13.07%14.61%10.08%15.68%102.56%0.00%15.43%3.09%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)548,368.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)525,579.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)22,789.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)109,673.6068,546.0041,127.60
Cash Retained (M)22,789.0022,789.0022,789.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-109,673.60-68,546.00-41,127.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)-86,884.60-45,757.00-18,338.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,377.754,377.754,377.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share-19.85-10.45-4.19
LTM Dividend per Share120.06120.06120.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share-19.85-10.45-4.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.21109.60115.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-3.27%-2.27%-1.27%
Fair Value$932.80$1,140.55$1,363.22
Upside / Downside-0.24%21.98%45.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)548,368.00535,915.96523,746.67511,853.71500,230.82488,871.85503,538.00
Payout Ratio95.84%94.68%93.51%92.34%91.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)525,579.00507,380.42489,737.33472,633.87456,054.65439,984.66465,772.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-3.27%-2.27%-1.27%
Year 1 PV (M)468,805.82473,652.40478,498.98
Year 2 PV (M)418,101.56426,791.03435,569.86
Year 3 PV (M)372,823.02384,505.85396,430.23
Year 4 PV (M)332,394.67346,354.66360,749.82
Year 5 PV (M)296,301.60311,937.59328,226.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,611,755.548,013,432.048,431,889.71
Equity Value (M)9,500,182.209,956,673.5710,431,365.42
Shares Outstanding (M)4,377.754,377.754,377.75
Fair Value$2,170.11$2,274.38$2,382.82
Upside / Downside132.10%143.25%154.85%

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