Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Altria Group, Inc. (MO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.11 - $118.59$89.72
Multi-Stage$122.37 - $134.13$128.14
Blended Fair Value$108.93
Current Price$66.06
Upside64.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.44%5.81%4.064.023.913.823.733.603.212.852.672.48
YoY Growth--0.97%2.73%2.37%2.48%3.64%12.08%12.65%6.54%7.97%7.37%
Dividend Yield--6.76%9.29%8.76%7.31%7.28%9.30%5.56%4.57%3.74%3.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,869.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,385.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)484.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,773.801,108.63665.18
Cash Retained (M)484.00484.00484.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,773.80-1,108.63-665.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,289.80-624.63-181.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,688.001,688.001,688.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.76-0.37-0.11
LTM Dividend per Share4.974.974.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.76-0.37-0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.204.604.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate0.44%1.44%2.44%
Fair Value$68.11$89.72$118.59
Upside / Downside3.11%35.81%79.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,869.008,996.339,125.499,256.509,389.409,524.209,809.92
Payout Ratio94.54%93.63%92.73%91.82%90.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,385.008,423.658,461.678,499.058,535.768,571.789,074.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate0.44%1.44%2.44%
Year 1 PV (M)7,821.737,899.617,977.49
Year 2 PV (M)7,295.627,441.627,589.07
Year 3 PV (M)6,804.247,009.517,218.87
Year 4 PV (M)6,345.336,601.846,866.05
Year 5 PV (M)5,916.786,217.266,529.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)172,375.85181,129.85190,235.95
Equity Value (M)206,559.55216,299.69226,417.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1,688.001,688.001,688.00
Fair Value$122.37$128.14$134.13
Upside / Downside85.24%93.97%103.05%

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