Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.37 - $30.28$25.09
Multi-Stage$40.51 - $44.41$42.43
Blended Fair Value$33.76
Current Price$13.18
Upside156.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%2.670.872.371.260.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--205.70%-63.12%88.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--17.19%4.53%12.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)291.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)260.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.3236.4521.87
Cash Retained (M)31.2631.2631.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.32-36.45-21.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)-27.06-5.199.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)115.89115.89115.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.23-0.040.08
LTM Dividend per Share2.252.252.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.23-0.040.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.012.202.33
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.37$25.09$30.28
Upside / Downside54.53%90.39%129.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)291.59288.67285.79282.93280.10277.30285.62
Payout Ratio89.28%89.42%89.57%89.71%89.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)260.33258.15255.98253.82251.69249.57264.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)237.30239.72242.14
Year 2 PV (M)216.30220.74225.22
Year 3 PV (M)197.16203.26209.48
Year 4 PV (M)179.72187.17194.84
Year 5 PV (M)163.81172.34181.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,700.773,893.484,094.14
Equity Value (M)4,695.074,916.715,147.05
Shares Outstanding (M)115.89115.89115.89
Fair Value$40.51$42.43$44.41
Upside / Downside207.39%221.90%236.99%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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