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AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - MortgageSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.82 - $7.63$6.77
Multi-Stage$12.88 - $14.24$13.55
Blended Fair Value$10.16
Current Price$7.24
Upside40.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.89%-12.47%0.600.580.650.360.492.061.841.861.782.27
YoY Growth--3.10%-10.22%80.12%-26.82%-76.16%11.86%-0.85%4.54%-21.77%0.06%
Dividend Yield--8.21%9.59%11.25%3.86%4.06%25.06%3.62%3.56%3.28%5.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.936.213.72
Cash Retained (M)28.0828.0828.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.93-6.21-3.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.1421.8724.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.0130.0130.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.730.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.730.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.321.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate-11.37%-10.37%-9.37%
Fair Value$5.82$6.77$7.63
Upside / Downside-19.68%-6.52%5.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.6744.5239.9035.7632.0628.7329.60
Payout Ratio43.47%52.77%62.08%71.39%80.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.5923.4924.7725.5325.8725.8627.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate-11.37%-10.37%-9.37%
Year 1 PV (M)21.3521.5921.83
Year 2 PV (M)20.4620.9221.39
Year 3 PV (M)19.1619.8220.49
Year 4 PV (M)17.6418.4519.29
Year 5 PV (M)16.0316.9517.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)291.96308.81326.42
Equity Value (M)386.60406.54427.34
Shares Outstanding (M)30.0130.0130.01
Fair Value$12.88$13.55$14.24
Upside / Downside77.93%87.11%96.69%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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