Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

PT Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,740.74 - $3,692.38$2,471.30
Multi-Stage$1,319.53 - $1,438.55$1,377.97
Blended Fair Value$1,924.64
Current Price$2,460.00
Upside-21.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.02%0.06%34.0037.0036.0136.8621.5018.440.0435.5726.1620.93
YoY Growth---8.11%2.76%-2.33%71.43%16.62%42,637.12%-99.88%36.00%25.00%-38.08%
Dividend Yield--1.52%1.38%1.23%1.70%0.82%0.86%0.00%1.70%0.99%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,290,432.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)598,021.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)692,410.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)258,086.43161,304.0296,782.41
Cash Retained (M)692,410.39692,410.39692,410.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-258,086.43-161,304.02-96,782.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)434,323.96531,106.37595,627.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,907.4813,907.4813,907.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share31.2338.1942.83
LTM Dividend per Share43.0043.0043.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share31.2338.1942.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend74.2381.1985.83
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,740.74$2,471.30$3,692.38
Upside / Downside-29.24%0.46%50.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,290,432.131,374,310.221,463,640.381,558,777.011,660,097.521,768,003.851,821,043.97
Payout Ratio46.34%55.07%63.81%72.54%81.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)598,021.74756,890.37933,885.271,130,691.641,349,137.181,591,203.471,684,465.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)681,628.75688,089.69694,550.62
Year 2 PV (M)757,396.63771,822.91786,385.29
Year 3 PV (M)825,826.76849,533.28873,689.19
Year 4 PV (M)887,392.60921,519.22956,620.80
Year 5 PV (M)942,541.17988,066.271,035,333.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,256,518.6414,945,113.8215,660,063.16
Equity Value (M)18,351,304.5519,164,145.1720,006,642.77
Shares Outstanding (M)13,907.4813,907.4813,907.48
Fair Value$1,319.53$1,377.97$1,438.55
Upside / Downside-46.36%-43.98%-41.52%

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