Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT Merck Tbk (MERK.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19,776.96 - $78,757.29$53,493.55
Multi-Stage$11,264.70 - $12,332.93$11,788.95
Blended Fair Value$32,641.25
Current Price$2,860.00
Upside1,041.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS168.91%0.22%318.99321.18239.43123.32128.652.272,815.51273.4199.80490.54
YoY Growth---0.68%34.14%94.15%-4.14%5,571.43%-99.92%929.78%173.95%-79.65%57.25%
Dividend Yield--9.35%8.11%4.96%3.08%4.06%0.13%69.86%4.34%1.08%6.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)178,505.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76,296.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)102,208.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35,701.0622,313.1613,387.90
Cash Retained (M)102,208.43102,208.43102,208.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-35,701.06-22,313.16-13,387.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)66,507.3779,895.2788,820.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)448.00448.00448.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share148.45178.34198.26
LTM Dividend per Share170.31170.31170.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share148.45178.34198.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend318.76348.64368.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.84%5.84%6.84%
Fair Value$19,776.96$53,493.55$78,757.29
Upside / Downside591.50%1,770.40%2,653.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)178,505.28188,935.30199,974.75211,659.23224,026.43237,116.25244,229.73
Payout Ratio42.74%52.19%61.65%71.10%80.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76,296.8598,612.24123,274.92150,483.00180,449.74213,404.62225,912.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.84%5.84%6.84%
Year 1 PV (M)91,690.5992,565.1493,439.69
Year 2 PV (M)106,576.78108,619.55110,681.71
Year 3 PV (M)120,967.64124,462.16128,023.33
Year 4 PV (M)134,875.16140,095.05145,465.00
Year 5 PV (M)148,311.03155,520.26163,007.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,444,163.074,660,188.654,884,534.34
Equity Value (M)5,046,584.285,281,450.815,525,151.22
Shares Outstanding (M)448.00448.00448.00
Fair Value$11,264.70$11,788.95$12,332.93
Upside / Downside293.87%312.20%331.22%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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