Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Mercury General Corporation (MCY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$186.48 - $503.93$286.78
Multi-Stage$157.25 - $172.25$164.61
Blended Fair Value$225.70
Current Price$67.34
Upside235.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.75%-6.35%1.271.271.902.532.522.512.502.492.482.46
YoY Growth--0.01%-33.33%-24.78%0.42%0.41%0.43%0.43%0.50%0.60%0.66%
Dividend Yield--2.27%2.42%6.00%4.60%4.15%6.17%4.96%5.43%4.06%4.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)439.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)369.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.9254.9532.97
Cash Retained (M)369.27369.27369.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.92-54.95-32.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)281.35314.32336.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.3955.3955.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.085.676.07
LTM Dividend per Share1.271.271.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.085.676.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.356.947.34
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Fair Value$186.48$286.78$503.93
Upside / Downside176.92%325.87%648.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)439.62462.30486.15511.24537.62565.36582.32
Payout Ratio16.00%30.80%45.60%60.40%75.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.34142.39221.69308.79404.29508.83538.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Year 1 PV (M)130.95132.20133.46
Year 2 PV (M)187.48191.10194.75
Year 3 PV (M)240.15247.14254.25
Year 4 PV (M)289.15300.42312.01
Year 5 PV (M)334.66351.04368.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,527.037,895.368,277.96
Equity Value (M)8,709.439,117.259,540.49
Shares Outstanding (M)55.3955.3955.39
Fair Value$157.25$164.61$172.25
Upside / Downside133.51%144.44%155.79%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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