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Definitive Analysis

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M.C.S. Steel Public Company Limited (MCS-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$216.38 - $432.72$405.52
Multi-Stage$66.65 - $72.97$69.75
Blended Fair Value$237.63
Current Price$8.30
Upside2,763.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.06%9.51%0.520.200.501.360.800.750.380.661.310.47
YoY Growth--159.98%-59.98%-63.52%71.25%6.67%98.76%-43.45%-49.46%180.04%124.86%
Dividend Yield--6.76%2.95%5.32%9.95%5.68%10.51%5.48%6.64%8.42%4.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,043.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)357.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)685.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)208.68130.4278.25
Cash Retained (M)685.65685.65685.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-208.68-130.42-78.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)476.97555.23607.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)479.54479.54479.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.991.161.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.991.161.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.741.902.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$216.38$405.52$432.72
Upside / Downside2,507.02%4,785.78%5,113.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,043.391,111.211,183.441,260.361,342.281,429.531,472.42
Payout Ratio34.29%45.43%56.57%67.71%78.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)357.74504.81669.49853.451,058.491,286.581,361.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)470.22474.67479.13
Year 2 PV (M)580.88591.94603.11
Year 3 PV (M)689.74709.54729.72
Year 4 PV (M)796.84827.48859.00
Year 5 PV (M)902.17945.75990.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,520.2029,897.7431,328.00
Equity Value (M)31,960.0533,447.1334,989.95
Shares Outstanding (M)479.54479.54479.54
Fair Value$66.65$69.75$72.97
Upside / Downside702.99%740.35%779.11%

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