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Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.12 - $413.06$129.04
Multi-Stage$43.14 - $47.08$45.08
Blended Fair Value$87.06
Current Price$55.98
Upside55.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.27%0.00%1.461.231.030.980.960.860.800.786.010.00
YoY Growth--18.91%19.10%5.56%2.29%11.54%7.06%2.81%-87.05%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.61%1.97%1.07%1.22%1.48%1.36%1.16%1.14%13.39%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)206.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)87.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.8236.7622.06
Cash Retained (M)87.2087.2087.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.82-36.76-22.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.3850.4465.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)141.60141.60141.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.360.46
LTM Dividend per Share1.461.461.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.360.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.821.92
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.12$129.04$413.06
Upside / Downside25.26%130.52%637.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294.10313.22333.58355.26378.35402.94415.03
Payout Ratio70.35%74.28%78.21%82.14%86.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)206.90232.66260.89291.81325.65362.65383.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)213.40215.42217.45
Year 2 PV (M)219.49223.67227.89
Year 3 PV (M)225.18231.65238.24
Year 4 PV (M)230.50239.36248.48
Year 5 PV (M)235.44246.81258.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,984.985,225.755,475.74
Equity Value (M)6,108.996,382.676,666.42
Shares Outstanding (M)141.60141.60141.60
Fair Value$43.14$45.08$47.08
Upside / Downside-22.93%-19.48%-15.90%

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