Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (LSIP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,724.56 - $13,410.07$8,411.79
Multi-Stage$7,467.36 - $8,199.81$7,826.63
Blended Fair Value$8,119.21
Current Price$1,355.00
Upside499.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.47%-1.64%38.9952.9950.9919.9915.0019.0044.9934.9936.9952.98
YoY Growth---26.41%3.92%155.00%33.33%-21.05%-57.78%28.57%-5.41%-30.19%15.22%
Dividend Yield--3.51%5.89%5.00%1.41%1.17%2.26%4.30%2.70%2.52%2.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,920,935.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)443,234.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,477,701.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)384,187.00240,116.88144,070.13
Cash Retained (M)1,477,701.001,477,701.001,477,701.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-384,187.00-240,116.88-144,070.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,093,514.001,237,584.131,333,630.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,819.966,819.966,819.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share160.34181.46195.55
LTM Dividend per Share64.9964.9964.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share160.34181.46195.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend225.33246.46260.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Fair Value$5,724.56$8,411.79$13,410.07
Upside / Downside322.48%520.80%889.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,920,935.001,983,999.032,049,133.442,116,406.212,185,887.532,257,649.912,325,379.41
Payout Ratio23.07%36.46%49.84%63.23%76.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)443,234.00723,348.071,021,376.641,338,194.061,674,712.782,031,884.922,150,975.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Year 1 PV (M)673,832.07680,419.98687,007.90
Year 2 PV (M)886,328.29903,743.91921,328.98
Year 3 PV (M)1,081,763.021,113,802.771,146,468.98
Year 4 PV (M)1,261,123.771,311,170.771,362,692.77
Year 5 PV (M)1,425,347.731,496,400.221,570,258.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,598,750.3447,871,813.1250,234,633.79
Equity Value (M)50,927,145.2253,377,350.7855,922,390.84
Shares Outstanding (M)6,819.966,819.966,819.96
Fair Value$7,467.36$7,826.63$8,199.81
Upside / Downside451.10%477.61%505.15%

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