Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lake Shore Bancorp, Inc. (LSBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.47 - $113.73$46.43
Multi-Stage$16.36 - $17.94$17.14
Blended Fair Value$31.78
Current Price$13.00
Upside144.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.18%6.25%0.140.000.190.140.130.170.110.100.120.08
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%32.84%6.27%-19.81%44.55%18.44%-16.33%45.34%3.56%
Dividend Yield--1.21%0.00%2.52%1.28%1.20%2.14%0.98%0.78%1.00%0.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.890.560.33
Cash Retained (M)3.363.363.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.89-0.56-0.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.472.813.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.687.687.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate4.25%5.25%6.25%
Fair Value$22.47$46.43$113.73
Upside / Downside72.84%257.15%774.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.454.684.925.185.465.745.91
Payout Ratio24.34%37.47%50.61%63.74%76.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.081.752.493.304.195.175.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate4.25%5.25%6.25%
Year 1 PV (M)1.631.651.66
Year 2 PV (M)2.162.202.24
Year 3 PV (M)2.662.742.82
Year 4 PV (M)3.153.273.40
Year 5 PV (M)3.613.793.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)112.49117.99123.70
Equity Value (M)125.71131.64137.80
Shares Outstanding (M)7.687.687.68
Fair Value$16.36$17.14$17.94
Upside / Downside25.87%31.81%37.98%

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