Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Multi Prima Sejahtera Tbk (LPIN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,827.41 - $14,276.12$13,378.82
Multi-Stage$2,163.07 - $2,362.74$2,261.09
Blended Fair Value$7,819.95
Current Price$484.00
Upside1,515.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%24.8314.9214.92117.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--66.47%0.00%-87.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.37%4.55%3.95%26.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,508.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29,550.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)957.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,101.673,813.552,288.13
Cash Retained (M)957.76957.76957.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,101.67-3,813.55-2,288.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5,143.91-2,855.78-1,330.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)425.00425.00425.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-12.10-6.72-3.13
LTM Dividend per Share69.5369.5369.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share-12.10-6.72-3.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend57.4362.8166.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5,827.41$13,378.82$14,276.12
Upside / Downside1,104.01%2,664.22%2,849.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,508.3732,491.4234,603.3636,852.5839,248.0041,799.1243,053.09
Payout Ratio96.86%95.49%94.12%92.74%91.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29,550.6131,025.5832,567.4434,178.6535,861.7337,619.2139,824.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)28,847.7129,121.1529,394.59
Year 2 PV (M)28,155.7128,692.0029,233.35
Year 3 PV (M)27,474.4828,263.1729,066.81
Year 4 PV (M)26,803.8527,834.6528,894.90
Year 5 PV (M)26,143.7027,406.4528,717.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)781,880.54819,645.66858,856.15
Equity Value (M)919,306.00960,963.091,004,163.33
Shares Outstanding (M)425.00425.00425.00
Fair Value$2,163.07$2,261.09$2,362.74
Upside / Downside346.92%367.17%388.17%

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