Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$687.82 - $3,572.93$1,389.91
Multi-Stage$376.90 - $412.54$394.39
Blended Fair Value$892.15
Current Price$234.98
Upside279.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.851.761.570.380.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4.83%12.61%310.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.80%1.11%0.99%0.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,005.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)444.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,561.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)801.00500.63300.38
Cash Retained (M)3,561.003,561.003,561.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-801.00-500.63-300.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,760.003,060.383,260.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)222.93222.93222.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.3813.7314.63
LTM Dividend per Share1.991.991.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.3813.7314.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.3715.7216.62
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$687.82$1,389.91$3,572.93
Upside / Downside192.71%491.50%1,420.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,005.004,265.334,542.574,837.845,152.305,487.205,651.81
Payout Ratio11.09%26.87%42.65%58.43%74.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)444.001,146.051,937.482,826.963,823.894,938.485,227.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,054.071,064.071,074.06
Year 2 PV (M)1,638.991,670.211,701.72
Year 3 PV (M)2,199.522,262.662,326.99
Year 4 PV (M)2,736.412,841.652,949.89
Year 5 PV (M)3,250.413,407.403,570.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)73,140.6776,673.3980,341.31
Equity Value (M)84,020.0687,919.3691,964.38
Shares Outstanding (M)222.93222.93222.93
Fair Value$376.90$394.39$412.54
Upside / Downside60.40%67.84%75.56%

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