Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lancaster Colony Corporation (LANC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$192.03 - $883.73$337.64
Multi-Stage$147.05 - $160.80$153.80
Blended Fair Value$245.72
Current Price$181.31
Upside35.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.47%7.59%3.763.563.363.162.952.752.552.352.156.93
YoY Growth--5.69%6.03%6.46%6.81%7.39%7.89%8.65%9.41%-69.05%282.79%
Dividend Yield--2.08%2.02%2.04%2.10%1.75%1.54%1.84%1.59%1.79%5.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)169.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.9721.2312.74
Cash Retained (M)64.8764.8764.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.97-21.23-12.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.9143.6552.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27.4927.4927.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.591.90
LTM Dividend per Share3.823.823.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.591.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.945.405.71
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Fair Value$192.03$337.64$883.73
Upside / Downside5.91%86.22%387.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)169.83179.12188.92199.26210.16221.66228.31
Payout Ratio61.80%67.44%73.08%78.72%84.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.95120.80138.06156.86177.29199.50211.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Year 1 PV (M)111.66112.73113.80
Year 2 PV (M)117.96120.23122.52
Year 3 PV (M)123.88127.47131.13
Year 4 PV (M)129.42134.45139.62
Year 5 PV (M)134.61141.18148.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,425.283,592.383,765.94
Equity Value (M)4,042.814,228.434,421.00
Shares Outstanding (M)27.4927.4927.49
Fair Value$147.05$153.80$160.80
Upside / Downside-18.90%-15.17%-11.31%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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